Predicting The Shows That Will Flop In 2024

Is it a good sign that Fox announced the series order for "Grimsburg," an animated comedy starring Jon Hamm, in 2021, but delayed the actual premiere until January 2024? To quote the Magic 8 Ball, "reply hazy, ask again." Hamm, who also serves as executive producer for "Grimsburg," voices world-weary Detective Marvin Flute, who returns to the titular town to win back his job and his deeply dysfunctional family. Fox screened an episode at New York Comic-Con in 2023, while also unveiling a promo spot that provides a thumbnail of the series' tone.

Judging from the promo, "Grimsburg" is in line with other animated series produced by Bento Box Entertainment – rapid-fire humor, neurotic family dynamics, a little racy, a little surreal. Bento has scored with this formula in series like "Bob's Burgers" and "The Great North," but for every hit, there are at least two other series that have generated less positive responses ("Krapopolis," "Duncanville") and outright flops ("The Prince," "Housebroken," "Bordertown"). Despite the presence of Hamm and a talented voice cast that includes Erinn Hayes and Rachel Dratch, there's no sure sign that "Grimsburg" will earn Bento another success.

Based on the novel "The Never Game" by Jeffrey Deaver, the CBS series "Tracker" stars Justin Hartley as a "lone-wolf survivalist" (the network's words) who helps individuals and law enforcement find missing persons with his nuclear-strength tracking skills. In addition to Hartley — starring in his first series since "This Is Us" — "Tracker" also features top-notch support from Oscar nominee Mary McDonnell ("Major Crimes"), Emmy nominee Robin Weigert ("Deadwood") and character actor Lee Tergesen ("Oz").

But the missing persons angle is already covered this season by "Found" and in previous seasons by such well-crafted dramas and comedies as "Search Party" and "Without a Trace." The "lone wolf" element sets "Tracker" apart from those shows (as does the cast), but the idea of a crusading individualist crisscrossing the country to help others suggests "Reacher" without all the bone-crushing and neck-snapping (which, admittedly, helps to sell that show). It also brings up much better series ("The Fugitive") and more dated ones as well ("Highway to Heaven," for crying out loud). "Tracker" is going to need every ounce of Hartley's inherent likability to find its way in the new season.

There's a lot of potential in the ABC comedy "High Potential." The series, a remake of a French series called "High Potential Intellectual," is produced by Drew Goddard of "Lost" fame and stars Kaitlin Olsen from "It's Always Sunny of Philadelphia" as a single mom whose exceptional mental skills give police detective Daniel Sunjata an assist in solving baffling crimes. Deadline singled out the series as the only pilot slated for production by ABC prior to its upfront, which is a presentation of new shows to media and advertisers.

It's possible that "High Potential" will deliver for ABC, but there's just as much chance for it to tank. The premise is cute — sharp mom teams with straight-laced cop to foil bad guys — but it could also play as broad or cheesy if not handled with smarts. Olsen is unquestionably funny on "Philadelphia," but she hasn't had much success in carrying a series: her previous solo effort, "The Mick," sank after two seasons. And Sunjata, though a versatile actor, has found more traction as a recurring player on shows like "Grey's Anatomy" than as a lead on short-lived series like "Graceland." Goddard's track record carries a lot more weight — in addition to "Lost," he also wrote and/or produced for "Alias," "The Good Place," and "Daredevil," so he might be the factor that carries "High Potential" past cancellation.

AMC's "Nautilus" made headlines in 2023 when the Australian-lensed series, commissioned by Disney+, was scuttled after filming was completed as part of the network's cost-cutting measures. The series — an origin story for Captain Nemo, the anti-hero of Jules Verne's enduring science fiction novel "20,000 Leagues Under the Sea" — was an almost absurdly expensive project, estimated to cost approximately $96 million, including $23 million in substantial tax incentives from the Australian government. "Nautilus" was saved from sinking by AMC, which snapped up the show in late 2023.

AMC's audience age demographic skews older and male – stats suggest that 40% of viewers are 55 or older and more than half are men — which may keep "Nautilus" afloat. But does Captain Nemo, a character linked to both 19th century literature and a 1954 Disney feature, still resonate with audiences? Vintage-minded adventure series don't seem to have much play unless they're set in Westeros, and the price tag needed to bring such visions to life has already proved prohibitive for "Nautilus."

What has the potential to lure in more viewers than a medical drama? A medical drama with a doctor who also has a baffling health condition to up the stakes. That's what Fox and Sony Pictures Television have with "Doc," a drama based on a wildly popular Italian series called "Doc — Nelle tue mani" ("In Your Hands"). The American take changes the gender of the doctor from male to female but otherwise preserves the basic premise: a health professional suffers a brain injury that wipes out her memories of the previous eight years, and must rebuild both her career and her family life.

"Doc" has a chance to be a hit: it's a compelling idea and in the right hands, might make for gripping television. Barbie Kligman, who serves as both writer and showrunner for "Doc," might be that person — she has vast experience as a writer and producer on medical shows like "Private Practice" and "Code Black," and helped to earn five seasons for the reboot of "Magnum P.I." But the majority of her shows are also heavily formulaic — audiences don't tune into "FBI" or "Magnum" or "CSI: NY" for the nuanced storytelling. A wait-and-see approach might be best before making an appointment with "Doc."

Hulu snapped up "Standing By," a new animated comedy-fantasy from Dan Levy of "Schitt's Creek" and film/TV/music director Ally Pankiw, who also served as story editor for two seasons of that celebrated series. "Standing By" is a sort of workplace comedy about guardian angels and the off-kilter people they oversee; Levy and Pankiw have amassed an impressive voice cast for the show, including David Tennant, Glenn Close, Samira Wiley, and Levy himself.

Bento Box Entertainment also has a hand in "Standing By," and as previously mentioned for "Grimsburg," their brand of animated comedy has a hit-and-miss track record. While Levy and Pankiw's track record is pretty untouchable — "Schitt's Creek" remains a favorite, and Pankiw has directed episodes of well-loved series like "The Great," "Black Mirror," and "Shrill" — guardian angels are an unwieldy subject on which to hang what is undoubtedly an edgy, adult-minded series ("Touched by an Angel" looms large). The end result might prove us wrong, but might also sink without a trace.

The Fox drama "Rescue: High Surf" has two admittedly significant things going for it: its executive producer is former "ER" showrunner John Wells, who returns to network TV for the first time since "Southland" aired from 2009 to 2010 on NBC (it moved to TNT for the next four seasons). The new series, which follows the lives of heavy-water lifeguards on the North Shore of O'ahu, will also benefit from the natural production value afforded by tropical vistas and tanned, buff bodies in motion.

Yet "Rescue: High Surf" appears to be another toss-up. Wells and series creator Matt Kester have proven track records, but as mentioned, Wells has been out of network TV for over a decade, and his previous collaboration with Kester on "Animal Kingdom" was a critical hit but only a modest audience draw for TNT. And shows about lifeguards or set in Hawaii aren't guaranteed hits: "Magnum, P.I." and "Hawaii Five-O" did well but were also established IP. Filming in the Aloha State didn't save Marvel's "Inhumans" or "Doogie Kameāloha, M.D." And aside from "Baywatch," can you recall a single recent series about lifeguards? They may not be as compelling as Wells and Kester believe them to be.

The immediate pros for this revamp of "Matlock" are the presence of Oscar winner Kathy Bates in the title role and the IP power of the original 1986-1995 series, which starred Andy Griffith and remains a syndication staple. Bates is well-liked and remains a go-to for high-profile features, like the recent "Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret," and TV series like the "American Horror Story" franchise and "Feud: Bette and Joan." Landing an actress of her caliber is a win for the new "Matlock," which also has three immediate and very daunting cons.

First and foremost, it's another legal series which appears to follow the basic TV formula: set up the case to let the star do some lawyer-y showboating. Second, the new take on "Matlock" essentially boils down to the equally weary trope of the senior professional showing her younger peers how to do their jobs. And third: reboots haven't fared well in the last few years. The network graveyards are littered with revived IP, and for every success like "Night Court" or "Frasier," there are plots filled with the remains of new takes on "The Twilight Zone," "Perry Mason," "Saved By the Bell," "Melrose Place," and so on.