Predicting The Biggest Box Office Bombs Of 2023

Predicting potential box office wins and bombs is an unreliable game. Some might liken it to sports betting, where forecasting winners and losers is so difficult people make (and lose) major money on their ballots. Hollywood is no different, really. While experts could probably guess that "Top Gun: Maverick" would be a hit, the decades-overdue legacy sequel shocked the world by dominating the global box office for most of 2022, beating "Jurassic World: Dominion" and two MCU movies in the process. Meanwhile, four years earlier, the usually reliable "Star Wars" franchise had a surprising miss with "Solo: A Star Wars Story." So even if some movies seem like safe bets, and others like surefire failures, you just never know. 

That said, we're pretty confident the following movies will be box-office failures. No, we're not rooting for them to fail, but we're predicting disaster based on a variety of factors — such as comparable movies, lackluster storylines, and bad timing. Yes, some of these flicks may surprise us, while some may be relegated to streaming (which could be a good thing), but looking ahead we feel like their fate is sealed at the multiplex. We won't put any money on this list (although the studios certainly invested in them), but here are our predictions for the biggest box office bombs of 2023.

In "A Man Called Otto," Tom Hanks portrays Otto Anderson, a widower who has become a bona fide grump after the loss of his wife but finds a new sense of purpose when a young, lively family moves into the home next to him. Per the official description, the matriarch of the brood is witty and forms a unique friendship with Otto. On the surface, this storyline might sound a little like a live-action version of "Up," minus the balloon adventures. 

It's also based on an international bestseller. "A Man Called Ove" was written by Fredrik Backman and was already made into a movie in 2015. All of the above makes "A Man Called Otto" sound like a surefire box office hit — but only in 2003, not 2023. As great of an actor as Tom Hanks is, his long-lived reputation as the nicest guy in Hollywood makes it hard to see him as anything but — just look at the critical reception to his turn as Colonel Tom Parker in "Elvis."

Speaking of "Elvis," while that film unexpectedly earned $282 million worldwide, Hanks' box office record has been spotty lately, sans his outings as Woody in the "Toy Story" franchise. Finally — and here's the kicker — it's an adult-skewing dramedy that may be too adult for kiddos but too sweet for seniors, and it's scheduled for nationwide release in the typical box office winter of January. In this box office climate, "A Man Called Otto" is a movie made for streaming. Perhaps it'd be better sold if, instead of Tom Hanks, the filmmakers cast someone who's more believable at being a curmudgeon.

Few genres have as big of a quality gap as original sci-fi. On one end you have "Avatar," "Star Wars," and "The Matrix," and on the other, you have "Jupiter Ascending," "Sunshine," and we suspect the next one to join them, "Distant."  

According to the film's official website, the film centers on a "low-level mining engineer" in space who crash-lands onto a dangerous planet and has to beat the odds — and creepy otherworldly creatures — to find another survivor. In other words, it's some kind of mix between "The Martian" and "The Grey." And while that might sound cool, it also sounds like the kind of movie that needs a bona fide Hollywood legend to anchor it.  

No, movie stars aren't worth what they once were, but, conceptually, "Distant" sounds like the kind of movie that would benefit tremendously from proven box office heroes like Dwayne Johnson or Will Smith. Instead, "Distant" stars an ensemble of talented, but not necessarily marquee names like Anthony Ramos, Naomi Scott, and Zachary Quinto. Plus, the constantly shifting release dates of the picture (from March to September 2022 and onto January 2023) don't inspire much optimism. 

We don't know much about "65," but still, it could be a bomb in the making. The plot is described as: "An astronaut who crash-lands on a mysterious planet discovers that he's not alone" (via Bloody Disgusting). That logline is vague enough it could describe any number of movies (even on this list). "65" is co-written and co-directed by Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, who co-wrote "A Quiet Place" with John Krasinski. The sci-fi/horror thriller also stars Adam Driver, who despite starring in one of the most commercially successful trilogies of all time in "Star Wars," isn't much of a box office draw himself when not playing people named Kylo Ren. 

Perhaps "65" is one of the rare original sci-fi films that can break out based on a modest budget? Well, "65" is estimated to cost $90 million (according to "Fastlane"), which might be somewhat modest by modern Hollywood standards, but it's also 30% more than the $61 million budget for "A Quiet Place Part II" and more than five times the $17 million budget for "A Quiet Place." The "A Quiet Place" series is such a surprise success because of just that; it's a surprise. Making back this kind of investment is a whole different ballgame. Even though we'll undoubtedly see "from the writers of 'A Quiet Place'" scrawled on all of the film's promotional materials, it could be that the "quiet place" for this pic could be in the movie theaters.

Nobody chews scenery like Nicolas Cage, and in 2023's "Renfield" we do mean "chew" literally as he'll be playing Count Dracula. In the horror-comedy (a tough genre in almost any context) from Chris McCay, Cage plays the Count, though the focus is presumably on Dracula's henchman, the eponymous Renfield, played by Nicholas Hoult. Now we know what you're thinking because we thought the exact same thing: "Nicolas Cage playing Dracula sounds awesome. There's no way this will bomb!" 

Well, we also thought "Nicolas Cage playing Nicolas Cage sounds awesome," but "The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent" tanked with only $29 million worldwide on a $30 million budget. "Nicolas Cage saving his pet pig" also sounded awesome, but "Pig" bombed with $3.8 million, as did "Nicolas Cage goes in a trippy, fever dream revenge fantasy," but "Mandy" collapsed with only $1.4 million. Now, Cage is arguably in the most creative parts of his career, and we'd rather watch these types of films than "Ghost Rider" sequels, but there's no denying that moviegoers aren't buying what he's been selling. Basically, his movies are there for movie nerds like us to share click-bait articles with headlines like "Watch Nicolas Cage play a [insert wacky character here]." Yeah, moviegoers will watch the trailer, but they won't show up for the film. So as much fun as it sounds, we expect the box office for "Renfield" to bite.

Spider-Man has one of the best rogues galleries in pop culture, and Sony has been trying to mine it for gold. The latest example (victim) of this trend will be "Kraven The Hunter." Why do we think "Kraven The Hunter" will bomb? One word: "Mobius." The 2022 pseudo-Spider-Man spin-off "Mobius" bombed not once, but twice, when Sony Pictures mistook "It's Morbin' time" trending on Twitter for real people actually wanting to spend real money to watch a movie they didn't watch the first time. 

Yes, "Venom" and "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" collectively earned $1.3 billion at the worldwide box office ... but that's Venom, arguably the most popular comic book supervillain not named "The Joker." Kraven (and, y'know, Morbius) is a C-list villain even in the Spider-Man series, and in no way does he warrant his own movie. "Okay," you may be thinking, "But Black Adam is also a C-List villain and his movie made lots of money." Well, Black Adam was played by Dwayne Johnson and is still going to have a tough time breaking even on its $200 million budget (via The Numbers) and marketing costs. "Kraven The Hunter" stars Aaron Taylor-Johnson, best known for playing Kick-Ass, that one guy in "Godzilla," and Quicksilver aka Pietro Maximoff in the MCU (and after that movie we're not looking forward to hearing him do a Russian accent again). Hey, maybe this movie will break through, but if "it's Kraven time" starts trending, it'll probably be for the memes.